Uncertainty Quantification in Global Ocean State Estimation |
Patrick Heimbach and Alex Kalmikov, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
Over the last decade the consortium on "Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean" (ECCO) has produced optimal estimates of the global time-evolving circulation of the ocean using much of the available satellite and in-situ observations. These estimates form the basis for addressing various problems in climate research. At the heart of the effort is the state-of-the-art MIT ocean general circulation model (MITgcm) and its adjoint. An outstanding issue has remained the provision of formal uncertainties along with the estimates or climate diagnostics derived from them. Here, we present the development of a Hessian-based method for Uncertainty Quantification within the ECCO framework. First and second derivative codes of the MITgcm are generated via algorithmic differentiation and used to propagate uncertainties between observation, control and target variable domains, following the concept of inverse-to-forward uncertainty propagation. Propagation through the model introduces the notion of time-varying uncertainty reduction and observation impact. By way of example, the method is applied to quantify Drake Passage barotropic transport uncertainties. |
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by: Sue Rodriguez Modified on: May 20, 2013 |